Art Market 2025
The art market in the first half of 2025 has been characterized by a notable contraction in high-end sales, while more accessible price points have shown resilience and even growth.1 This trend points to a market that is in a period of rebalancing and a shift in collector behavior.2
Here's a general overview of what's been happening:
The High-End Market is Contracting
• Decline in High-Value Lots: Auction sales, particularly for works priced above $10 million, have seen a significant decline.3 Some reports indicate a drop of over 40% in the number of public transactions in this segment compared to the first half of 2024.4 There have been no works sold for more than $50 million, a stark contrast to previous years.
• Fewer "Trophy" Works:5 Sellers are more cautious, and fewer masterpieces or "trophy" works are being brought to auction. This has led to a thinner supply in the top tier of the market.
• Increased Use of Guarantees: To mitigate risk, auction houses and sellers have increasingly relied on guarantees for high-value lots, with the share of guaranteed post-war and contemporary evening sale lots rising significantly.6
• Shift to Private Sales: With the public auction market showing volatility, some collectors and dealers are turning to private sales for high-value transactions, which offer more discretion and stability.
The Mid- and Lower-Tier Markets are Resilient
• Growth in Accessible Art: The sub-$10 million segment, and particularly works under $5,000, are experiencing a quiet but notable uptick in activity. The total number of lots sold is at a near-decade high, indicating a healthy volume of transactions.
• New Collector Base: This momentum is being driven by a new generation of buyers, including Millennials and Gen Z, who are entering the market with smaller budgets but a strong interest in collecting.8 They are more likely to buy online and are drawn to emerging artists.
• Focus on Emerging Artists: There is increased interest in works by emerging artists and those with an established but more accessible secondary market.9 This also extends to previously underappreciated categories.10
• Increased Transparency: Younger collectors, in particular, are demanding more transparency in pricing and provenance.11 This is leading galleries and auction houses to adapt their strategies, with more online platforms providing visible pricing.
Broader Market Trends
• Shift in Collector Behavior: Overall, collectors are becoming more selective and risk-averse.12 They are making "safer bets" on artists with established reputations and museum presence.13
• Digital Adoption: The digital transformation of the market continues to accelerate.14 Galleries and auction houses are expanding their online presence and content, with a significant portion of bids now being placed online.15
• Rise of Specific Categories: While post-war and contemporary art sales have fallen, certain categories are seeing a surge.16 These include:
o Old Masters: Sales of Old Masters have seen a significant jump, suggesting a renewed interest in historical and classical works.17
o Design and Decorative Arts: This category is also performing well, indicating a diversification of collector interests beyond traditional paintings and sculptures.18
• Art as Collateral: Art lending has seen a rise, with collectors using their collections as collateral to access liquidity without having to sell in a down market.19
• Economic and Geopolitical Factors: Broader economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and shifting global wealth are all contributing to the cautious atmosphere in the art market.20 The U.S. remains the leading art market globally, despite a decline in sales.
The first half of 2025 has been a period of significant recalibration for the art market, with a number of intertwined factors shaping its performance.1 While the overall value of the market has contracted, particularly at the top end, other segments are showing resilience and even growth.
Key Factors Impacting the Art Market in the First Half of 2025
1. Economic and Geopolitical Uncertainty:
• Global economic slowdown and inflation: This has created a sense of caution among high-net-worth individuals and major collectors.3 While many are not financially worse off, the prevailing unease has made them hesitant to sell their most valuable works.4
• Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing conflicts and political instability have contributed to a risk-averse environment.5 The art market, being a discretionary luxury, is particularly sensitive to such macro factors.
• Rising Business Costs: Galleries, especially, are grappling with increased costs for rent, shipping, and art fair participation, which is squeezing profit margins and contributing to gallery closures.6
2. Shift in Collector Behavior:
• High-end Hesitancy: The most significant trend is the decline in sales of "trophy" works, those valued over $10 million.7 The number of public transactions in this segment has fallen sharply.8 There have been no works sold for more than $50 million, a stark contrast to previous years.9
• Increased Selectivity: Collectors are becoming more discerning and less speculative.10 The boom in "young contemporary" artists, which was fueled by low interest rates and speculative buying, has now cooled considerably. Buyers are making "safer bets" on historically significant artists with established reputations, museum presence, and a proven track record.11
• Demand for Transparency: A new generation of collectors, particularly millennials and Gen Z, are driving a demand for greater transparency in pricing and provenance.12 This is influencing how galleries and auction houses operate, with more online platforms providing visible pricing.
3. The Rise of the Mid- and Lower-Tier Markets:
• Resilience and Growth: While the top end has struggled, the sub-$10 million market has shown remarkable resilience.13 The total number of transactions in this segment is at a near-decade high.
• New Collector Base: This momentum is being driven by new buyers entering the market at more accessible price points.14 These collectors are often younger, more digitally-native, and are drawn to a wider range of art and artists.
• Shifts in Taste: There is a renewed interest in previously underappreciated categories, such as Old Masters and decorative arts, which have seen a surge in sales.15 There's also a focus on emerging artists and "mid-career blue-chip" works that offer a balance of status and value.16
4. Digital Transformation and its Impact:
• Online Dominance: The accelerated adoption of digital platforms that began during the pandemic continues.17 Online sales remain a crucial component of the market, particularly for lower-priced works.18
• Fractional Ownership: The rise of platforms that allow for fractional ownership of high-value artworks is democratizing the market and making it more accessible to a wider range of investors.19
• New Media: The market for digital art, including NFTs, is maturing beyond the initial hype, with collectors focusing more on established digital artists and the intrinsic artistic value of the works.
Prospects for the Last Part of 2025
The outlook for the second half of 2025 is a mixture of continued caution and strategic adaptation.
• Continued Caution at the High End: It is unlikely that the high-end market will see a sudden reversal of fortunes. Sellers will likely continue to be hesitant to bring major works to auction.21 This could lead to a reliance on private sales and third-party guarantees to de-risk public auctions.
• Resilience in the Mid-Market: The mid- and lower-tier markets are expected to remain strong.22 The increasing number of new collectors, combined with a focus on accessible art, will likely continue to drive transaction volume.23
• Strategic Shifts by Auction Houses and Galleries: To navigate the challenging environment, both auction houses and galleries will likely double down on strategies that have shown success in the first half of the year. This includes:
o Focus on Private Sales: Expect a continued push toward private sales for high-value works.24
o Targeting New Collectors: A greater emphasis will be placed on cultivating relationships with new and younger buyers through online platforms, smaller-scale events, and educational content.25
o Diversifying Offerings: Auction houses and galleries will continue to diversify their sales to include categories that are currently performing well, such as Old Masters, design, and decorative arts.
• The "Right-Sizing" of the Market: The current climate is being described by some as a necessary "right-sizing" of the market after a period of speculative excess.26 This suggests that the second half of the year will be a period of consolidation and a focus on long-term, sustainable growth rather than a return to the explosive sales of recent years. The market will be less about record-breaking auctions and more about deliberate, strategic collecting.27
Sources:
https://news.artnet.com/market/intelligence-report-auction-sales-first-half-2025-2683745#:~:text=This%20article%20is%20part%20of,ideas%20on%20the%20road%20ahead.
https://www.artbasel.com/stories/the-art-basel-and-ubs-global-art-market-report-2025
https://www.ml.com/articles/art-market-spring-update.html#:~:text=(Data%20from%20Christie's%2C%20Sotheby's%20and,Show%20text%20version
https://arttactic.com/reports/rawfacts-auction-review-first-half-2025?uni_match=0&qa=1758395948536
https://maddoxgallery.com/news/453-wellness-check-for-the-art-market-at-the/
